Pick A Peck of Pickled Preps

Going into the most action-packed day of Derby preps of the season, the Pony Bologna crew is amped.  Admittedly, two of the three Grade I races on slate for today have little true Kentucky Derby implications.  Uncle Mo is the only real Derby contender in the Wood Memorial and the relatively small purse of the Illinois Derby ($300,000, down from $500,000 in years past) means that Tampa Bay Derby upset winner Watch Me Go is the only horse at Hawthorne with a chance to earn enough money to make it into the Derby dance.

Of course once the gates fly open Saturday afternoon we'll all still be engrossed in some of the most exciting action in sports.  So without further ado we present our picks for all three prep races.  Gregg will give his top 3 horses for each race while Jeremy will post his bets for each race.

Gregg:

Wood Memorial - I think Uncle Mo destroys this field of plow horses.  He should wire them and post a 100+ Beyer Speed Figure in the process. Starship Caesar was claimed for $25k on 3 January, Toby's Corner won The Whirlaway but was 3rd in the Gotham Stakes, Full of Scoundrels won a 6f NYbred $12.5k maiden claimer on 12 March, Arthurs Tale has 6 starts with only 1 win, In 5 starts Preachintothedevil has won a NYbred MSW and a restricted stakes race, Duca 4 starts only 1 win, Norman Asbjornson was 2nd in the Gotham,  Isn't He Perfect his only win was in a maiden claimer, finally Son of Posse was 3rd in the Battaglia Memorial.

Gimme Some Mo; Uncle Mo hopes to not
only win, but win big today at Aquedcut

Picks:

1. Uncle Mo
2. Duca
3. Toby's Corner

Illinois Derby -  Not much to talk about in this one, so here are the choices.

Picks:
1. Sour
2. El Grayling
3. Watch Me Go

Santa Anita Derby - Hopefully none of my picks get injured on the way to the track.

Picks:
1.  Mr. Commons
2.  Anthony's Cross
3.  Silver Medallion


Jeremy:

Wood Memorial - I can't argue with Gregg. Uncle Mo SHOULD wipe the track with this less-than-stellar batch of competitors. However at 1-9 odds there is no real benefit to putting money on that outcome.  That's why I'm going to try and beat the "superhorse" here. Horse racing can be a crazy thing.  Derby contender Mucho Macho Man lost a shoe right out of the gate in the Louisiana Derby and ran 3rd, horses can stumble out of the gate, get jostled around by others in the field or just plain have a bad day. At such short odds I feel it's worth my money to see if I can cash a big ticket betting on an Uncle Mo slip up.  Why not?
My picks here are based mostly on jockeys who are riding well at Aqueduct and, to a much lesser extent, what kind of talent the horses have shown in the past.

Bet:
$1 exacta box:
1 - Starship Caesar
2 - Toby's Corner
4 - Arthur's Tale
6 - Preachintothedevil

Total: $12


Illinois Derby - Another subpar group of horses. From all indication horse racing in Illinois is on the brink of extinction. Which is a big disappointment to Pony Bologna as we're only a stone's throw from Fairmount Park. While the track itself isn't the most beautiful in the country, it provides live racing and a place to satisfy the gambling urge of these two degenerates.  On to the race at Hawthorne. Watch Me Go will be the favorite here but I was certainly not impressed with his Tampa Derby win. He looked like UCONN in the NCAA Finals, just doing enough to win against no real competition. He doesn't have much more competition here but I do like the Mike Maker-trained El Grayling. He has monster breeding numbers (I'll discuss things like GSV, dosage points and Triad more in the coming weeks) and has reportedly been training well up to this race.  The horse is owned in part by Louisville attorney Tom Conway, and an Illinois Derby victory would be no more improbable than his Stately Victor (also trained by Maker) taking the Blue Grass last year. I'm keying the 10 over the first 7 positions in this race for no other reason than Hawthorne is notorious for favoring inside posts and punishing the outside. I think the 10 can overcome this bias but have no faith in anyone outside of 7 doing so.

Bet:
$1 Exacta Key
10 over 1-7
1-7 over 10

Total: $14

Santa Anita Derby - This is the true marquee matchup of the day. While the injuries to favorites Premier Pegasus and Jaycito have taken some of the shine off of the race, the $1million in graded earnings available means that the winner here punches their ticket into the Kentucky Derby.  I was very high on Pegasus but also felt that Bob Baffert wouldn't push the horse too hard here.  I really like Mr. Commons and Anthony's Cross (see post Pegasus's wings clipped for a description of these horses) and will be throwing in Bench Points based almost solely on jockey Rafael Bejarano's success at the track so far this meet. Comma To The Top's trainer has said he's sending him to the front so I add him here on the chance that he holds on for at least a piece of the exacta.



Mr Commons began his career with
an impressive turf victory.

Bet:
$2 Exacta Box
3 - Mr Commons
5 - Comma To The Top
9 - Anthony's Cross
10 - Bench Points

Total $24
Total bet for all races $50 (I told you, we're not big time here)

The Wood can be watched online at the NTRA website starting at 4:30 central or on HRTV with a replay shown on TVG immediately following the race.  The Illinois Derby will be shown on TVG while the Santa Anita can be watched live on DRF.com. TVG will of course show a replay of the races soon after they finish but it's really a shame that NBC is not showing any of these prep races, as they've done in the past. It seems as if the Sport of Kings is becoming more for the peasants every year.  Enjoy the races and good luck.