Bluegrass Breakdown

After all of the talk and analysis we're finally down to the last true Kentucky Derby prep weekend.  Last weekend's races really shook up everyone's "Top 5/10/25" lists. Uncle Mo showed that he was not the superhorse that he was thought to be. Before the race the announcer made mention of the Triple Crown as a possibility for Mo, now even the Derby looks iffy for the 2-year-old champ.  A GI tract infection, no that's not Grade One but gastro-intestinal, was discovered in Mo following his disappointment in the Wood Memorial.  The infection is not considered serious and both trainer Todd Pletcher and owner Mike Repole insist that if the horse is healthy and works well leading up to the Derby he will run.

The Illinois Derby gave us a winner in Joe Vann who won't likely even make it into the Derby field because he wasn't even late nominated to the Triple Crown. While newcomer Midnight Interlude punched his ticket to Churchill by nipping Comma To The Top in the Santa Anita Derby.  Of the three Derby preps last weekend Gregg and Jeremy cashed tickets in all three races.  Jeremy's hope to beat the superhorse Uncle Mo in the Wood led to an exacta hit, Gregg used pedigree numbers plus the trust in Pletcher to grab Joe Vann in the IL and also went with the Bob Baffert-trained SA winner too!  Overall a great day for Pony Bologna at the windows, we're hoping for more of the same this Saturday!

On to our breakdown of the two preps this weekend.  In all honesty it could be said that there is really only one true Derby prep being run this weekend, the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park.  The Toyota Bluegrass Stakes, being run on the AWS of Keeneland, has only produced one Kentucky Derby winner (Street Sense in 2007, 2nd in the Bluegrass) and no horse has won both races since the track has switched from a dirt surface.

While there are several horses entered into the Bluegrass who are likely not true Kentucky Derby contenders, even with a win on Saturday, one horse has been on people's Derby radars for quite a while.  Santiva won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall at Churchill and has never finished off of the board in his 5 lifetime races.  He currently sits 18th on the Graded Earnings list with $240,254.  That would be good enough to make it into the starting gate if the Derby was run today, but a good showing by a few horses below him on the list coupled with a bad run by Santiva could have him on the outside looking in.  This means that, unlike The Factor in the Arkansas Derby (more on him later) Santiva does need to run well in the Bluegrass to insure his spot in the Kentucky Derby.

On to the race itself.  First we'll look at Gregg's Bluegrass Picks:

1.Brilliant Speed
2. Santiva
3. Queen'sPlateKitten
4. Newsdad

Brilliant Speed - By far the highest GSV in the field. Horses with such a big advantage in this bloodline figure usually do very well over the AWS at Keeneland.  Sometimes horses in a race have similar GSV numbers but Brilliant Speed is at 75.32 while the second-highest number in the field is Newsdad at 67.98.  That's too big of a difference to ignore. GSV helped me spot Joe Vann in the Illinois Derby field and on a track where GSV plays bigger than most, I'm taking a flyer on this longshot.

Santiva - I have had this horse on my short list for the Kentucky Derby for months now. I see no reason to get away from him now. He appears to be the class of the field and that deserves credit. Plus his trainer, Eddie Kenneally, works out of Keeneland and knows the track well.

Queen'sPlateKitten - This horse appears to be on the come. A Canadian who's won at 1m1/16 on the AWS at Woodbine and Pletcher has been doing well this Derby prep season.

Newsdad - FInished 1st & second in his last two races over the turf, both at 1m1/8 so distance shouldn't be an issue. Had a good 6f workout for trainer Bill Mott on Sunday over the Keeneland surface.

Jeremy:

Keeneland can be an unpredictable surface to bet, to say the least.  Favorites in Grade 1 races on Keeneland Polytrack are 1/25 according to the track's program.  While once again I agree with Gregg that Santiva is a deserving favorite in this race, I don't think he'll offer any betting value and I don't know if he'll regain his winning form from last fall. Additionally the horse hasn't race in 56 days and hasn't been training particularly great at Palm Meadows.  I'm going to once again take a stand against the favorite and hope that this race goes the way of every other prep run this season.

To narrow down my choices I wanted to see what horses had experience running over the polytrack surface:

Santiva - 2nd at 1m 1/16 in the BC Futurity over this same track.

Sensational Slam - wins at 5 1/2 & 6f over the track at Woodbine, though these were his first two races and are clearly not the same as running a route on a big Stakes day.

Twinspired - last 3 races have been on poly (1st at 1m, 4th at 1m1/16 and 3rd last out at 1m1/8)

Willcox Inn - 3rd behind Santiva in BCFut

Wilkinson - won first race of career at Kee 7f (but has been exclusively a dirt runner/trainer since then)

Praetereo - 5th at 1m1/16 in 2nd race of career

Crimson China - 3 of 4 races on poly. (2nd by a nose at 1m, win at 1m1/16 by 3 lengths, 2nd by 2 lengths behind Swift Warrior in the Rushaway at 1m1/16)

Queen'splatekitten - win by 5 1/4lengths at Woodbine going 1m1/16 in Dec '10.

To me, Twinspired and Crimson China seem to have the best experience on poly. Additionally, Wilcox Inn was only a length behind Santiva on this same track, finishing 3rd in the BCFut. It's likely that Santiva has progressed further than Wilcox Inn over the last year, but at a price I'm willing to take a chance.

It appears that Joe's Blazing Aaron will jump out to the lead in this one, and rider Garrett Gomez is winless in Derby preps this season.  I don't know if such a good jockey will be held winless the whole season and Keenland can sometimes lead to wire-to-wire winners.  Another good price so I'm willing to take a chance here.  Also, I can't ignore how Brilliant Speed's GSV towers over the field so I'll be playing him as well.  So here are my bets for the Toyota Bluegrass Stakes:

$1 Tri P/W

7,8,11 (Twinspired, Willcox Inn, Crimson China)
over
3,4,7,8,11,12 (Add Santiva, Joe's Blazing Aaron, Queen'splatekitten)
over
3,4,7,8,11,12

$60

$15 Show Bets
4 - Joe's Blazing Aaron
5 - Brilliant Speed

Total - $90


Later today we'll post our breakdown of the Arkansas Derby.  Check back soon!