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Thursday, April 7, 2011

Pegasus's wings clipped

Fans of top 5 Kentucky Derby contender Premier Pegasus, including your's truly here at Pony Bologna, were disappointed to find out that the Santa Anita Derby favorite has a hairline fracture in the cannon bone of his left foreleg which will likely knock him off of the Triple Crown trail.  Pegasus had one of the most visually impressive prep wins of the season, taking the San Felipe by 7 3/4 lengths.  While we're unhappy to see such a fine contender off the trail we're glad to hear that his connections expect a full recovery for the horse.

With the favorite dropping out, the Santa Anita Derby becomes a pretty wide open affair and a bettors paradise.  Numerous longshots look to have a real shot at taking this race and even moving on to Louisville. Here are some preliminary notes on the SA Derby (our picks will be posted tomorrow):

-- Anthony's Cross  He’s been training fast across town at Hollywood Park, constantly rising Beyer Speed Figures with every career race, has one of SA's top jockeys aboard (J. Rosario 23%W, 58%Bd), and has a win over this track at this distance in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes posting a 91 Beyer Speed Figure and a -49 Performance Figure.

-- Mr. Commons  Broke his maiden at 6 1/2 furlongs on the turf, by an impressive 5 1/2 lengths.  His 1:34 4/5 mile debut on the dirt in a February allowance found him waiting, waiting, and then pouring it on to get up late. Like Anthony's Cross, he's had a series of great works at Hollywood Park.  Trainer/jockey combo of John Shirreffs and Mike Smith are no strangers to the winner's circle at this track and surface; the last time the Santa Anita Derby was run on dirt was 2007, the combo scored with longshot Tiago.

-- Bench Points, Offlee Wild Boys  While these horses don't have the impressive credentials that many of the others in this field possess, they have a pair of the best West Coast riders in the game. Bench Points will be ridden by famed jockey Rafael Bejarano who has almost identical Win and Board percentages to J. Rosario's meet-leading stats. 

After losing his mount on my darkhorse pick Celestic Night, Smokin Joe Talamo, picks up the ride on Offlee Wild Boys.  There is a saying that sometimes you bet the "horse for the course" but as we've seen over the last few years with Calvin Borel at Churchill Downs, sometimes all you really need is the jockey for the course.  Keep an eye on these entries as they could get great trips from their jocks and make their way into some exotic bets, making for a very nice payout.

There are two other historically big preps being run this weekend (The Wood Memorial and The Illinois Derby) however, the fields in these two races seem less-than-impressive, with the exception of Kentucky Derby favorite Uncle Mo in the Wood.  We'll still give you our picks but won't give an in depth look at these races as they, most likely, won't produce any big players on the Triple Crown trail.

Here are the Past Performances for this weekend's prep races courtesy of Brisnet:

Santa Anita (click on 4/9 Jaycito)

Wood (click on 4/9 Uncle Mo)

IL Derby (click on 4/9 Joe Vann)

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