There are three major figures that most handicappers use to assess a horse's performance in a race: BRIS speed figures, Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) and Chef-de-Race Performance Figures (PF). There are historical comparisons which can be made using all three of those figures. We'll look, first, at Beyer's numbers.
Twelve of the last 19 Derby winners posted a Beyer Speed Figure of 105 or better before their victories at Churchill Downs. However, 3 of the last 4 winners did not post such a figure before running away with the roses, Big Brown in 2008 being the only exception. Taking a look at this year's contenders we see that no horse has posted even a triple-digit BSF in their 2011 campaign and only Uncle Mo (108) and Soldat (103) have had a 100+ BSF in their careers. Because of this short fall in the BSF's usefulness this year, Pony Bologna has decided not to use the BSF for our Derby projections.
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| There are no Big Browns in this year's Kentucky Derby and the speed figures clearly show that. |
Next up in the world of speed numbers are the BRIS speed figures. Developed by Bloodstock Research Information Services, the BRIS figures are similar in nature to the BSF. The advantage in using BRIS numbers is that these figures not only compare a horse's performance in the race as a whole, but break down each race into E1 (the horse's performance to the First Call, 4f in routes), E2 (to the second call, 6f) and the Late Pace figure (LP, from the Second Call to the finish).
Twelve of the last 21 Derby winners had an overall BRIS speed rating of 104 or higher in their final prep. Again, Big Brown is the only winner in the last 4 years who qualified under this category. Looking through the current crop of Derby hopefuls, no horses posted a 104 or higher BRIS speed rating in their final prep. Dialed In and Shackleford each posted a 101 in their Florida Derby efforts, the only triple-digit figures in a final prep.
Another BRIS-related stat centers around the LP figure earned by Derby winners in their last prep. Fourteen of the last 21 winners obtained a LP figure of 103 or higher in their final prep. Once again Big Brown checks in as the only winner in the last 4 runnings of the Derby to have qualified in this category. Unlike the other speed figures we've discussed so far, there are a handful of 2011 Kentucky Derby contenders who did earn a LP figure of 103+ in their final preps.
In the Santa Anita Derby, Comma To The Top earned a 103 LP while Midnight Interlude earned a 108. Toby's Corner put up a 105 LP en route to his upset win in the Wood Memorial while Brilliant Speed received a blazing 109 LP coming from the back of the pack to take the Bluegrass Stakes. Finally in the Arkansas Derby, 1-2 finishers ArchArchArch and Nehro posted a 103 and 109 LP, respectively for their efforts at Oaklawn Park. Of these horses, we have already eliminated Comma To The Top and Toby's Corner from contention based on their low GSV/DP figures. So we move the remaining 4 horses on through our process.
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| Midnight Interlude used a 109 LP to edge out Comma To The Top in the Santa Anita Derby |
Performance Figures are calculated for the top three finishers in graded stakes races. The figures are based on a combination of fractional and final times converted into a single number. They represent performance integrated over the entire race. In that sense, they differ from conventional speed figures which rely only on the final time. For this methodology, the entire pace line of a race is converted to a performance figure, and it is compared to the number for the class-par pace line or, occasionally, a projected pace line. All pars are adjusted for age, distance, sex, and time of year. Variants are then calculated in the normal way.
On the scale, a figure of "0" is the standard for an older male $10,000 claimer. At the top tracks, pars for older males are -84 for a Grade 1, -78 for a Grade 2, and -72 for a Grade 3. Pars for older females are -72 for a Grade 1, -66 for a Grade 2, and -60 for a Grade 3. Pars for younger horses will vary throughout the year. For example, par for the Kentucky Derby (in May) is -64 while par for the Belmont Stakes (in June) is -68. The lower the number (i.e., the more negative), the higher the level of performance. Beaten lengths calculations are as follows: 7 points per length at less than six furlongs; 5 points per length between a seven furlongs and a mile; 4 points per length between a mile and forty yards and nine and one-half furlongs; 3 1/2 points per length at ten furlongs; and 3 points per length at greater than ten furlongs.
For our purposes we focus on this historical statistic: Since the introduction of Performance Figures in 1998, 11 of 13 Derby winners have had a figure of –50 or lower. That's an amazing 85%. Also since 1998, the Kentucky Derby winner has posted one of the 5 best PFs 10 times. Needless to say, the Pony Bologna crew puts quite a bit of stock in the PF as our "Speed Figure of Choice" when handicapping Kentucky Derby contenders. There are 8 horses who have posted a total of 12 sub -50 PFs:
Dialed In (-50; 2011 Holy Bull S)
Mucho Macho Man (-52; 2011 Risen Star)
Nehro (-52; 2011 AR Derby)
ArchArchArch (-53; 2011 AR Derby)
Dialed In (-54; 2011 FL Derby)
Shackleford (-54; 2011 FL Derby)
Mucho Macho Man (-54; LA Derby)
Top 5:
Brilliant Speed (-55,turf; 2011 Dania Beach S)
Nehro (-56; 2011 LA Derby)
Pants On Fire (-57; 2011 LA Derby)
Mucho Macho Man (-63; 2010 Remsen S)
Uncle Mo (-86; 2010 BC Juv)
Dialed In(2), Nehro(2) and Mucho Macho Man(3) have all posted multiple sub -50 PFs in their careers. Looking at this list and cross-referencing our earlier blog on GSV/DP we can eliminate Mucho Macho Man and Uncle Mo from contention based on their deficiencies in those areas. This leaves us with the following horses who have made it through the GSV/DP and PF cuts. We add Midnight Interlude to the mix based on his strong LP in the Santa Anita Derby and this gives us 7 horses that we are strongly considering for our Derby bets:
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| Court will be in session on Saturday as jockey Jon Court rides Pony Bologna favorite ArchArchArch |
Nehro
Brilliant Speed
Pants On Fire
Dialed In
Shackleford
Awarding extra "points" to horses who also posted qualifying LP figures in their final preps or who are in the Top 5 PFs we find there are 4 horses that stand above the others at this point in our process:
ArchArchArch
Nehro
Brilliant Speed
Pants On Fire
Obviously the Post Position draw Wednesday evening could have a huge impact on these rankings. A position of 1 or 18-20 could be very harmful to any of these horses. Additionally, the weather on Derby Day may play a part in how the Pony Bologna crew plays the race. We will certainly keep you posted so check back soon for more stats, comparisons and opinions.
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