Our first piece of the puzzle is Genetic Strength Value (GSV). The GSV is a 5 generation pedigree rating using racing & breeding statistics from more than 6,500 stallions. The higher the number, the better. While a high GSV does not guarantee success at Classic distances, a look back at the historical data shows that there is a cutoff point for GSV scores when it comes to Kentucky Derby winners.
The following explanation of GSV and GSV2 comes from the website of George William Smith, developer of the GSV & GSV2 (it's lengthy but really gives a good foundation for why the GSV & GSV2 are important factors):
"GSV & GSV2 are numerical scores developed by George William Smith, known for his pedigree analysis skills that led to two Eclipse Champions, Farda Amiga and Vindication; European Horse of the Year, St. Jovite; and connected to hundreds of stakes winners.
Throughout my career I have constantly been asked about the strength of pedigrees. Clients ask if they should purchase or sell a certain horse, breed this mare to that stallion to produce a certain type of foal, etc. I usually answer that I need to take an in-depth look at the pedigree, race record and stud performance so that I might be as accurate as possible about the potentials of the pedigrees involved.
For over 25 years I have been generating a score for their thoroughbred so that my clients may more easily be made aware of the strength of the thoroughbred I am researching for them compared to other thoroughbreds. It is called my GRASP score. GRASP stands for Genetic, Racing Ability and Stud Performance.
The Genetic score arrives with the foal at birth, but may change throughout its lifetime as its parents and 5 generations of ancestors do better or worse at stud as time goes by. The change can be dramatic if both parents are in the early stages of their stud career or slight if both have been in the stud a long time. Usually, the foal can not do a thing about it's Genetic score, but if the foal is very, very good it might have some impact on the stud career of its parents.
The Racing Ability score is earned during it's racing career and once retired does not change. The Racing Ability score can help you understand you whether the horse got its fair share of the good genes or not. If a horse has a high Genetic score but cannot outrun a fat man, the Racing Ability score will reflect that it did not get much of the 'good stuff' from its parents. On the other hand, if the foal has a high Genetic score and runs like the wind, the Racing Ability score added to the Genetic score will be very high, predicting that there is much potential in this horse when sent to stud. Thus, I use the GRA score as a guide on how much potential there is in the horse before it produces a foal. I always publish the GRA scores of potential stallions so that my clients know ahead of time who I predict will succeed and who are likely to fail.
The Stud Performance score is earned during the stud career of the horse and until it no longer has foals from its producing daughters racing on the track. Depending on how many foals and the length the horse stood at stud, this score often changes even after the death of the horse. The older a horse is or would have been, the less this value changes.
The GSV and GSV2 are derived from the GRASP scores of the 31 thoroughbred sires found within 5 generations and weighted according to how close up they appear, but is not male dependent like dosage, etc. The GSV actually measures the Genetic Strength of 57 of the 62 horses within those 31 sires, beginning with the sire of the horse and the next four generations. The horses currently not measured are the 5 dams of the tail-female line and these can be found on a catalog page. The GSV & GSV 2 is a perfect supplement to catalog page of a horse for sale as the GSV & GSV2 objectively measures the genetic strength of the horse, whereas a catalog page is highly biased toward the best ancestors in a horse's tail-female line pedigree."
Since 1950 just five Kentucky Derby champions have had a GSV/GSV2 under 70. This is the starting point for the Pony Bologna team. A horse with a GSV under 70 will not be considered as a potential Derby winner.
Here are horses with a GSV/GSV2 under the 70 point cutoff:
Comma To The Top (59.96)
Toby's Corner (62.53)
Mucho Macho Man (65.71)
Animal Kingdom (69.55)
So after just the first cut we've taken 20% of the field out of our bets. Next we'll look at Dosage Points. This information can be obtained from Chef-de-Race, a well-respected dosage website run by Steven A. Roman, Ph.D. Taking a look at a major stat from past Kentucky Derbies our list of potential winners is reduced dramatically.
Since Middleground, with his 12 total DP, took the 1950 Run For the Roses, NO horse has won the race with fewer than 16 total dosage points. The DP total is calculated by adding the dosage points in each of the horse's 5 dosage categories (Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid and Professional). Note: It is usually a plus for a horse to have the highest number of DP in his "Classic" wing. Taking a look at this year's crop of Derby contenders we see that there are 8 horses who have fewer than 16 DP:
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| Pony Bologna believes likely post-time favorite Uncle Mo will lay down in the Kentucky Derby. |
Twinspired (14)
Decisive Moment (14)
Mucho Macho Man (12)
Toby's Corner (10)
Comma To The Top (8)
Animal Kingdom (8)
Uncle Mo (8)
Yes, you read that correctly. Anointed "superhorse" Uncle Mo, the likely post-time Kentucky Derby favorite, has only 8 Dosage Points. If Uncle Mo were to win this year's Derby he would have the lowest DP total of a winner since Count Fleet (4) in 1943! Clearly there are other reasons which we will discuss later (illness, poor 2011 campaign, etc.) but based on this figure Uncle Mo will not be on top of any Pony Bologna tickets this year.
Based on GSV and DP we have eliminated 8 horses from the top spot on our Derby bets. This is nearly half of the field. Next blog we'll look at other variables, including speed figures and how a horse finished in his final prep, to further trim down our tickets in our search for the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner!
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