Well...it's officially the First Saturday in May! Today is like Christmas, New Year's Eve and a birthday all rolled into one for the Pony Bologna crew. We research, discuss, toss horses, add them back, discuss, do more research and ulitmately place our bets. Just before the gates fly open the butterflies in our stomachs are churnning. We were certainly disappointed when our favorite, ArchArchArch, drew post 1. However, after even more research we aren't as devastated as we were on Wednesday. While the 1-hole isn't ideal, we don't believe it to be the "death sentence" for AAA's chances that others do. In our opinion, too many people have last year's post-time favorite Lookin At Lucky and his awful trip from post 1 in their minds. But looking back at history there have been very few "real" contenders to break from the 1 since Ferdinand did it in 1986. While Lucky was the post-time favorite, he was relatively unproven on dirt and was certainly anything but Lucky in his prep races leading up to last year's Derby. We think that AAA has the ability, speed and toughness to withstand a trip from the 1-hole and as trainer Jinks Fires said, "it's still the shortest way around the track."
So without further ado we present the Pony Bologna 2011 Kentucky Derby picks. Gregg will start things off by giving us his top 4 horses and one longshot play then Jeremy will lay out his Derby bets.
Gregg:
Short, sweet and to the point. Here are my Top 5:
1. ArchArchArch
2. Brilliant Speed
8. Dialed In
14. Shackleford
15. Midnight Interlude
Jeremy:
$20 ATB ($60)
1
$5 Ex P/W ($200)
1,2,15,19 / 1,2,3,7,8,12,13,14,15,17,19
$1 Tri P/W ($120)
1/ 2,7,15,19/ 2,3,7,8,11,12,13,14,15,17,19
2,7,15,19/ 1/ 2,3,7,8,11,12,13,14,15,17,19
2,7,15,19/ 2,3,7,8,11,12,13,14,15,17,19/ 1
$1 Super P/W ($48)
1,19/ 1,8,19/ 1,2,8,19/ 1,2,7,8,11,14,15,17,19
$1 Straight Super ($2)
5-7-20-11 (Today's Date)
1-8-15-2
TOTAL: $430
Good luck to everyone today. Enjoy it. It's one of the greatest days in sports. We'll be back on Monday to recap the race and how we did. Hopefully by then we'll be recovered from celebrating our big win!
Saturday, May 7, 2011
Monday, May 2, 2011
I feel the need...the need for speed.
Using the pedigree-influenced figures of GSV and Dosage Points we have trimmed out 8 horses from the top spot of our Kentucky Derby bets. Now we'll take a look at how we further sift through the contenders using speed figures to find the horses with the best chance of crossing the wire first at Churchill Downs this Saturday.
There are three major figures that most handicappers use to assess a horse's performance in a race: BRIS speed figures, Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) and Chef-de-Race Performance Figures (PF). There are historical comparisons which can be made using all three of those figures. We'll look, first, at Beyer's numbers.
Twelve of the last 21 Derby winners had an overall BRIS speed rating of 104 or higher in their final prep. Again, Big Brown is the only winner in the last 4 years who qualified under this category. Looking through the current crop of Derby hopefuls, no horses posted a 104 or higher BRIS speed rating in their final prep. Dialed In and Shackleford each posted a 101 in their Florida Derby efforts, the only triple-digit figures in a final prep.
Another BRIS-related stat centers around the LP figure earned by Derby winners in their last prep. Fourteen of the last 21 winners obtained a LP figure of 103 or higher in their final prep. Once again Big Brown checks in as the only winner in the last 4 runnings of the Derby to have qualified in this category. Unlike the other speed figures we've discussed so far, there are a handful of 2011 Kentucky Derby contenders who did earn a LP figure of 103+ in their final preps.
In the Santa Anita Derby, Comma To The Top earned a 103 LP while Midnight Interlude earned a 108. Toby's Corner put up a 105 LP en route to his upset win in the Wood Memorial while Brilliant Speed received a blazing 109 LP coming from the back of the pack to take the Bluegrass Stakes. Finally in the Arkansas Derby, 1-2 finishers ArchArchArch and Nehro posted a 103 and 109 LP, respectively for their efforts at Oaklawn Park. Of these horses, we have already eliminated Comma To The Top and Toby's Corner from contention based on their low GSV/DP figures. So we move the remaining 4 horses on through our process.
The final speed figure we use to determine who is performing at a "Kentucky Derby Champion" level coming into the race is the Performance Figure. A detailed comparison between BSF and PF can be found here. Here is a (relatively) brief explanation of the PF from the Chef-de-Race website:
Performance Figures are calculated for the top three finishers in graded stakes races. The figures are based on a combination of fractional and final times converted into a single number. They represent performance integrated over the entire race. In that sense, they differ from conventional speed figures which rely only on the final time. For this methodology, the entire pace line of a race is converted to a performance figure, and it is compared to the number for the class-par pace line or, occasionally, a projected pace line. All pars are adjusted for age, distance, sex, and time of year. Variants are then calculated in the normal way.
On the scale, a figure of "0" is the standard for an older male $10,000 claimer. At the top tracks, pars for older males are -84 for a Grade 1, -78 for a Grade 2, and -72 for a Grade 3. Pars for older females are -72 for a Grade 1, -66 for a Grade 2, and -60 for a Grade 3. Pars for younger horses will vary throughout the year. For example, par for the Kentucky Derby (in May) is -64 while par for the Belmont Stakes (in June) is -68. The lower the number (i.e., the more negative), the higher the level of performance. Beaten lengths calculations are as follows: 7 points per length at less than six furlongs; 5 points per length between a seven furlongs and a mile; 4 points per length between a mile and forty yards and nine and one-half furlongs; 3 1/2 points per length at ten furlongs; and 3 points per length at greater than ten furlongs.
For our purposes we focus on this historical statistic: Since the introduction of Performance Figures in 1998, 11 of 13 Derby winners have had a figure of –50 or lower. That's an amazing 85%. Also since 1998, the Kentucky Derby winner has posted one of the 5 best PFs 10 times. Needless to say, the Pony Bologna crew puts quite a bit of stock in the PF as our "Speed Figure of Choice" when handicapping Kentucky Derby contenders. There are 8 horses who have posted a total of 12 sub -50 PFs:
Dialed In (-50; 2011 Holy Bull S)
Mucho Macho Man (-52; 2011 Risen Star)
Nehro (-52; 2011 AR Derby)
ArchArchArch (-53; 2011 AR Derby)
Dialed In (-54; 2011 FL Derby)
Shackleford (-54; 2011 FL Derby)
Mucho Macho Man (-54; LA Derby)
Top 5:
Brilliant Speed (-55,turf; 2011 Dania Beach S)
Nehro (-56; 2011 LA Derby)
Pants On Fire (-57; 2011 LA Derby)
Mucho Macho Man (-63; 2010 Remsen S)
Uncle Mo (-86; 2010 BC Juv)
Dialed In(2), Nehro(2) and Mucho Macho Man(3) have all posted multiple sub -50 PFs in their careers. Looking at this list and cross-referencing our earlier blog on GSV/DP we can eliminate Mucho Macho Man and Uncle Mo from contention based on their deficiencies in those areas. This leaves us with the following horses who have made it through the GSV/DP and PF cuts. We add Midnight Interlude to the mix based on his strong LP in the Santa Anita Derby and this gives us 7 horses that we are strongly considering for our Derby bets:
ArchArchArch
Nehro
Brilliant Speed
Pants On Fire
Dialed In
Shackleford
Awarding extra "points" to horses who also posted qualifying LP figures in their final preps or who are in the Top 5 PFs we find there are 4 horses that stand above the others at this point in our process:
ArchArchArch
Nehro
Brilliant Speed
Pants On Fire
Obviously the Post Position draw Wednesday evening could have a huge impact on these rankings. A position of 1 or 18-20 could be very harmful to any of these horses. Additionally, the weather on Derby Day may play a part in how the Pony Bologna crew plays the race. We will certainly keep you posted so check back soon for more stats, comparisons and opinions.
There are three major figures that most handicappers use to assess a horse's performance in a race: BRIS speed figures, Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) and Chef-de-Race Performance Figures (PF). There are historical comparisons which can be made using all three of those figures. We'll look, first, at Beyer's numbers.
Twelve of the last 19 Derby winners posted a Beyer Speed Figure of 105 or better before their victories at Churchill Downs. However, 3 of the last 4 winners did not post such a figure before running away with the roses, Big Brown in 2008 being the only exception. Taking a look at this year's contenders we see that no horse has posted even a triple-digit BSF in their 2011 campaign and only Uncle Mo (108) and Soldat (103) have had a 100+ BSF in their careers. Because of this short fall in the BSF's usefulness this year, Pony Bologna has decided not to use the BSF for our Derby projections.
 |
| There are no Big Browns in this year's Kentucky Derby and the speed figures clearly show that. |
Next up in the world of speed numbers are the BRIS speed figures. Developed by Bloodstock Research Information Services, the BRIS figures are similar in nature to the BSF. The advantage in using BRIS numbers is that these figures not only compare a horse's performance in the race as a whole, but break down each race into E1 (the horse's performance to the First Call, 4f in routes), E2 (to the second call, 6f) and the Late Pace figure (LP, from the Second Call to the finish).
Twelve of the last 21 Derby winners had an overall BRIS speed rating of 104 or higher in their final prep. Again, Big Brown is the only winner in the last 4 years who qualified under this category. Looking through the current crop of Derby hopefuls, no horses posted a 104 or higher BRIS speed rating in their final prep. Dialed In and Shackleford each posted a 101 in their Florida Derby efforts, the only triple-digit figures in a final prep.
Another BRIS-related stat centers around the LP figure earned by Derby winners in their last prep. Fourteen of the last 21 winners obtained a LP figure of 103 or higher in their final prep. Once again Big Brown checks in as the only winner in the last 4 runnings of the Derby to have qualified in this category. Unlike the other speed figures we've discussed so far, there are a handful of 2011 Kentucky Derby contenders who did earn a LP figure of 103+ in their final preps.
In the Santa Anita Derby, Comma To The Top earned a 103 LP while Midnight Interlude earned a 108. Toby's Corner put up a 105 LP en route to his upset win in the Wood Memorial while Brilliant Speed received a blazing 109 LP coming from the back of the pack to take the Bluegrass Stakes. Finally in the Arkansas Derby, 1-2 finishers ArchArchArch and Nehro posted a 103 and 109 LP, respectively for their efforts at Oaklawn Park. Of these horses, we have already eliminated Comma To The Top and Toby's Corner from contention based on their low GSV/DP figures. So we move the remaining 4 horses on through our process.
 |
| Midnight Interlude used a 109 LP to edge out Comma To The Top in the Santa Anita Derby |
Performance Figures are calculated for the top three finishers in graded stakes races. The figures are based on a combination of fractional and final times converted into a single number. They represent performance integrated over the entire race. In that sense, they differ from conventional speed figures which rely only on the final time. For this methodology, the entire pace line of a race is converted to a performance figure, and it is compared to the number for the class-par pace line or, occasionally, a projected pace line. All pars are adjusted for age, distance, sex, and time of year. Variants are then calculated in the normal way.
On the scale, a figure of "0" is the standard for an older male $10,000 claimer. At the top tracks, pars for older males are -84 for a Grade 1, -78 for a Grade 2, and -72 for a Grade 3. Pars for older females are -72 for a Grade 1, -66 for a Grade 2, and -60 for a Grade 3. Pars for younger horses will vary throughout the year. For example, par for the Kentucky Derby (in May) is -64 while par for the Belmont Stakes (in June) is -68. The lower the number (i.e., the more negative), the higher the level of performance. Beaten lengths calculations are as follows: 7 points per length at less than six furlongs; 5 points per length between a seven furlongs and a mile; 4 points per length between a mile and forty yards and nine and one-half furlongs; 3 1/2 points per length at ten furlongs; and 3 points per length at greater than ten furlongs.
For our purposes we focus on this historical statistic: Since the introduction of Performance Figures in 1998, 11 of 13 Derby winners have had a figure of –50 or lower. That's an amazing 85%. Also since 1998, the Kentucky Derby winner has posted one of the 5 best PFs 10 times. Needless to say, the Pony Bologna crew puts quite a bit of stock in the PF as our "Speed Figure of Choice" when handicapping Kentucky Derby contenders. There are 8 horses who have posted a total of 12 sub -50 PFs:
Dialed In (-50; 2011 Holy Bull S)
Mucho Macho Man (-52; 2011 Risen Star)
Nehro (-52; 2011 AR Derby)
ArchArchArch (-53; 2011 AR Derby)
Dialed In (-54; 2011 FL Derby)
Shackleford (-54; 2011 FL Derby)
Mucho Macho Man (-54; LA Derby)
Top 5:
Brilliant Speed (-55,turf; 2011 Dania Beach S)
Nehro (-56; 2011 LA Derby)
Pants On Fire (-57; 2011 LA Derby)
Mucho Macho Man (-63; 2010 Remsen S)
Uncle Mo (-86; 2010 BC Juv)
Dialed In(2), Nehro(2) and Mucho Macho Man(3) have all posted multiple sub -50 PFs in their careers. Looking at this list and cross-referencing our earlier blog on GSV/DP we can eliminate Mucho Macho Man and Uncle Mo from contention based on their deficiencies in those areas. This leaves us with the following horses who have made it through the GSV/DP and PF cuts. We add Midnight Interlude to the mix based on his strong LP in the Santa Anita Derby and this gives us 7 horses that we are strongly considering for our Derby bets:
 |
| Court will be in session on Saturday as jockey Jon Court rides Pony Bologna favorite ArchArchArch |
Nehro
Brilliant Speed
Pants On Fire
Dialed In
Shackleford
Awarding extra "points" to horses who also posted qualifying LP figures in their final preps or who are in the Top 5 PFs we find there are 4 horses that stand above the others at this point in our process:
ArchArchArch
Nehro
Brilliant Speed
Pants On Fire
Obviously the Post Position draw Wednesday evening could have a huge impact on these rankings. A position of 1 or 18-20 could be very harmful to any of these horses. Additionally, the weather on Derby Day may play a part in how the Pony Bologna crew plays the race. We will certainly keep you posted so check back soon for more stats, comparisons and opinions.
Ain't Nuttin But a G(SV) Thang
We are just five days away from The Most Exciting Two Minutes In Sports! It's time for Pony Bologna to start laying out the pieces of our formula for cashing winning bets for the Kentucky Derby. The approach we take to the Kentucky Derby is to use a large sample size of past winners to create cutoff points for various important statistics. This gives us a way in which to compare the figures of the current crop of contenders against history to see who best fits this "Winners Profile". With such a historic race as the Kentucky Derby there are hundreds of facts and patterns that could be used to knock down the chances of any horse in the field. The most important part of picking the winning combination is to evaluate why the horse falls short in that category and to further decide just how valuable each category is to determining the eventual winner.
Our first piece of the puzzle is Genetic Strength Value (GSV). The GSV is a 5 generation pedigree rating using racing & breeding statistics from more than 6,500 stallions. The higher the number, the better. While a high GSV does not guarantee success at Classic distances, a look back at the historical data shows that there is a cutoff point for GSV scores when it comes to Kentucky Derby winners.
The following explanation of GSV and GSV2 comes from the website of George William Smith, developer of the GSV & GSV2 (it's lengthy but really gives a good foundation for why the GSV & GSV2 are important factors):
"GSV & GSV2 are numerical scores developed by George William Smith, known for his pedigree analysis skills that led to two Eclipse Champions, Farda Amiga and Vindication; European Horse of the Year, St. Jovite; and connected to hundreds of stakes winners.
Throughout my career I have constantly been asked about the strength of pedigrees. Clients ask if they should purchase or sell a certain horse, breed this mare to that stallion to produce a certain type of foal, etc. I usually answer that I need to take an in-depth look at the pedigree, race record and stud performance so that I might be as accurate as possible about the potentials of the pedigrees involved.
For over 25 years I have been generating a score for their thoroughbred so that my clients may more easily be made aware of the strength of the thoroughbred I am researching for them compared to other thoroughbreds. It is called my GRASP score. GRASP stands for Genetic, Racing Ability and Stud Performance.
The Genetic score arrives with the foal at birth, but may change throughout its lifetime as its parents and 5 generations of ancestors do better or worse at stud as time goes by. The change can be dramatic if both parents are in the early stages of their stud career or slight if both have been in the stud a long time. Usually, the foal can not do a thing about it's Genetic score, but if the foal is very, very good it might have some impact on the stud career of its parents.
The Racing Ability score is earned during it's racing career and once retired does not change. The Racing Ability score can help you understand you whether the horse got its fair share of the good genes or not. If a horse has a high Genetic score but cannot outrun a fat man, the Racing Ability score will reflect that it did not get much of the 'good stuff' from its parents. On the other hand, if the foal has a high Genetic score and runs like the wind, the Racing Ability score added to the Genetic score will be very high, predicting that there is much potential in this horse when sent to stud. Thus, I use the GRA score as a guide on how much potential there is in the horse before it produces a foal. I always publish the GRA scores of potential stallions so that my clients know ahead of time who I predict will succeed and who are likely to fail.
The Stud Performance score is earned during the stud career of the horse and until it no longer has foals from its producing daughters racing on the track. Depending on how many foals and the length the horse stood at stud, this score often changes even after the death of the horse. The older a horse is or would have been, the less this value changes.
The GSV and GSV2 are derived from the GRASP scores of the 31 thoroughbred sires found within 5 generations and weighted according to how close up they appear, but is not male dependent like dosage, etc. The GSV actually measures the Genetic Strength of 57 of the 62 horses within those 31 sires, beginning with the sire of the horse and the next four generations. The horses currently not measured are the 5 dams of the tail-female line and these can be found on a catalog page. The GSV & GSV 2 is a perfect supplement to catalog page of a horse for sale as the GSV & GSV2 objectively measures the genetic strength of the horse, whereas a catalog page is highly biased toward the best ancestors in a horse's tail-female line pedigree."
Since 1950 just five Kentucky Derby champions have had a GSV/GSV2 under 70. This is the starting point for the Pony Bologna team. A horse with a GSV under 70 will not be considered as a potential Derby winner.
Here are horses with a GSV/GSV2 under the 70 point cutoff:
Comma To The Top (59.96)
Toby's Corner (62.53)
Mucho Macho Man (65.71)
Animal Kingdom (69.55)
So after just the first cut we've taken 20% of the field out of our bets. Next we'll look at Dosage Points. This information can be obtained from Chef-de-Race, a well-respected dosage website run by Steven A. Roman, Ph.D. Taking a look at a major stat from past Kentucky Derbies our list of potential winners is reduced dramatically.
Since Middleground, with his 12 total DP, took the 1950 Run For the Roses, NO horse has won the race with fewer than 16 total dosage points. The DP total is calculated by adding the dosage points in each of the horse's 5 dosage categories (Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid and Professional). Note: It is usually a plus for a horse to have the highest number of DP in his "Classic" wing. Taking a look at this year's crop of Derby contenders we see that there are 8 horses who have fewer than 16 DP:
Twice the Appeal (14)
Twinspired (14)
Decisive Moment (14)
Mucho Macho Man (12)
Toby's Corner (10)
Comma To The Top (8)
Animal Kingdom (8)
Uncle Mo (8)
Yes, you read that correctly. Anointed "superhorse" Uncle Mo, the likely post-time Kentucky Derby favorite, has only 8 Dosage Points. If Uncle Mo were to win this year's Derby he would have the lowest DP total of a winner since Count Fleet (4) in 1943! Clearly there are other reasons which we will discuss later (illness, poor 2011 campaign, etc.) but based on this figure Uncle Mo will not be on top of any Pony Bologna tickets this year.
Based on GSV and DP we have eliminated 8 horses from the top spot on our Derby bets. This is nearly half of the field. Next blog we'll look at other variables, including speed figures and how a horse finished in his final prep, to further trim down our tickets in our search for the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner!
Our first piece of the puzzle is Genetic Strength Value (GSV). The GSV is a 5 generation pedigree rating using racing & breeding statistics from more than 6,500 stallions. The higher the number, the better. While a high GSV does not guarantee success at Classic distances, a look back at the historical data shows that there is a cutoff point for GSV scores when it comes to Kentucky Derby winners.
The following explanation of GSV and GSV2 comes from the website of George William Smith, developer of the GSV & GSV2 (it's lengthy but really gives a good foundation for why the GSV & GSV2 are important factors):
"GSV & GSV2 are numerical scores developed by George William Smith, known for his pedigree analysis skills that led to two Eclipse Champions, Farda Amiga and Vindication; European Horse of the Year, St. Jovite; and connected to hundreds of stakes winners.
Throughout my career I have constantly been asked about the strength of pedigrees. Clients ask if they should purchase or sell a certain horse, breed this mare to that stallion to produce a certain type of foal, etc. I usually answer that I need to take an in-depth look at the pedigree, race record and stud performance so that I might be as accurate as possible about the potentials of the pedigrees involved.
For over 25 years I have been generating a score for their thoroughbred so that my clients may more easily be made aware of the strength of the thoroughbred I am researching for them compared to other thoroughbreds. It is called my GRASP score. GRASP stands for Genetic, Racing Ability and Stud Performance.
The Genetic score arrives with the foal at birth, but may change throughout its lifetime as its parents and 5 generations of ancestors do better or worse at stud as time goes by. The change can be dramatic if both parents are in the early stages of their stud career or slight if both have been in the stud a long time. Usually, the foal can not do a thing about it's Genetic score, but if the foal is very, very good it might have some impact on the stud career of its parents.
The Racing Ability score is earned during it's racing career and once retired does not change. The Racing Ability score can help you understand you whether the horse got its fair share of the good genes or not. If a horse has a high Genetic score but cannot outrun a fat man, the Racing Ability score will reflect that it did not get much of the 'good stuff' from its parents. On the other hand, if the foal has a high Genetic score and runs like the wind, the Racing Ability score added to the Genetic score will be very high, predicting that there is much potential in this horse when sent to stud. Thus, I use the GRA score as a guide on how much potential there is in the horse before it produces a foal. I always publish the GRA scores of potential stallions so that my clients know ahead of time who I predict will succeed and who are likely to fail.
The Stud Performance score is earned during the stud career of the horse and until it no longer has foals from its producing daughters racing on the track. Depending on how many foals and the length the horse stood at stud, this score often changes even after the death of the horse. The older a horse is or would have been, the less this value changes.
The GSV and GSV2 are derived from the GRASP scores of the 31 thoroughbred sires found within 5 generations and weighted according to how close up they appear, but is not male dependent like dosage, etc. The GSV actually measures the Genetic Strength of 57 of the 62 horses within those 31 sires, beginning with the sire of the horse and the next four generations. The horses currently not measured are the 5 dams of the tail-female line and these can be found on a catalog page. The GSV & GSV 2 is a perfect supplement to catalog page of a horse for sale as the GSV & GSV2 objectively measures the genetic strength of the horse, whereas a catalog page is highly biased toward the best ancestors in a horse's tail-female line pedigree."
Since 1950 just five Kentucky Derby champions have had a GSV/GSV2 under 70. This is the starting point for the Pony Bologna team. A horse with a GSV under 70 will not be considered as a potential Derby winner.
Here are horses with a GSV/GSV2 under the 70 point cutoff:
Comma To The Top (59.96)
Toby's Corner (62.53)
Mucho Macho Man (65.71)
Animal Kingdom (69.55)
So after just the first cut we've taken 20% of the field out of our bets. Next we'll look at Dosage Points. This information can be obtained from Chef-de-Race, a well-respected dosage website run by Steven A. Roman, Ph.D. Taking a look at a major stat from past Kentucky Derbies our list of potential winners is reduced dramatically.
Since Middleground, with his 12 total DP, took the 1950 Run For the Roses, NO horse has won the race with fewer than 16 total dosage points. The DP total is calculated by adding the dosage points in each of the horse's 5 dosage categories (Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid and Professional). Note: It is usually a plus for a horse to have the highest number of DP in his "Classic" wing. Taking a look at this year's crop of Derby contenders we see that there are 8 horses who have fewer than 16 DP:
 |
| Pony Bologna believes likely post-time favorite Uncle Mo will lay down in the Kentucky Derby. |
Twinspired (14)
Decisive Moment (14)
Mucho Macho Man (12)
Toby's Corner (10)
Comma To The Top (8)
Animal Kingdom (8)
Uncle Mo (8)
Yes, you read that correctly. Anointed "superhorse" Uncle Mo, the likely post-time Kentucky Derby favorite, has only 8 Dosage Points. If Uncle Mo were to win this year's Derby he would have the lowest DP total of a winner since Count Fleet (4) in 1943! Clearly there are other reasons which we will discuss later (illness, poor 2011 campaign, etc.) but based on this figure Uncle Mo will not be on top of any Pony Bologna tickets this year.
Based on GSV and DP we have eliminated 8 horses from the top spot on our Derby bets. This is nearly half of the field. Next blog we'll look at other variables, including speed figures and how a horse finished in his final prep, to further trim down our tickets in our search for the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner!
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